Why a Cooling Market Could Be Your Best Chance to Buy

When I sat down with Jason and Aisha last month, they told me they were watching the market from the sidelines. They assumed they had missed their window. What surprised them, and me, is that the window hasn’t closed. The market is changing, and in many places, it’s opening up again.

At Merge Mortgage Group, we’re seeing more balanced markets, more negotiating power for buyers, and regional dynamics shifting in favour of Alberta. If you're open to looking, you might find a better deal today than two years ago.

The bigger picture: Canada’s market is cooling

After years of ferocious price growth and fierce competition, data suggests the Canadian housing market is entering a phase of adjustment rather than runaway growth. National forecasts expect home prices to decline slightly this year (around 2 %) in many regions.

Here are some key trends:

• Slower demand + rising supply: More houses are coming on the market, especially in pricier regions like Ontario and BC, giving buyers more options.

• Regional variation: While some markets are retreating, others are showing strength or holding ground, especially in the Prairies and parts of Quebec.

• Buyer leverage returns: In many areas, sellers are more willing to negotiate. Closing costs, repair credits, and flexible possession dates are making a comeback.

This is important: a cooling market is not a crash. It’s a reset. And resets can favor those ready to act.

Why Alberta shines in a shifting national landscape

Because Merge Mortgage Group works across provinces but with a focus on Alberta, I’ve seen how our province is uniquely positioned in this new phase. Here’s what we’re living that others may not:

1. Affordability cushion
   In Alberta you often pay less for more: land, square footage, amenities. A higher-priced market elsewhere might cool, but where you start still matters.

2. Growing interest from relocators
   Many clients are selling in BC or Ontario and moving here. The cooler conditions back home allow them to unload properties more easily and reinvest with more capital here.

3. Demand for inventory in Alberta remains steadier
   Even as sales slow in some regions, Alberta is holding up relatively well. And because price growth was never as extreme as in some metro areas, there may be less downside risk for buyers.

4. Strategic timing potential
   In cooler national markets, fewer investors and speculators chase properties here, giving genuine buyers room to find value.

A story of timing and patience

Let me tell you about Miranda. She’s a healthcare worker in Ontario. She sold her condo in Toronto earlier this year, thinking she should wait for the “right time” to buy again. Meanwhile, she’d had her eye on a small home in Calgary for months.

When listings in the GTA started sitting longer and price drops crept in, Miranda realized the “right time” might already be here, elsewhere. She walked into Calgary with equity in hand, found a home that needed a few cosmetic updates, and negotiated a deal 5 % below asking. Because market momentum held in her favour, she locked in financing and moved with confidence.

That’s the advantage of watching both your current and target markets.

How buyers/investors can position themselves today

Here are actionable strategies in this cooling environment:

• Get pre-approved early: Don’t wait until you find a house. Sellers prize certainty, especially when markets soften.

• Stay regionally fluid: Don’t limit yourself to your current city. Search across regions where price-growth dynamics differ, especially Alberta.

• Look for “soft list” opportunities: Homes that have been relisted, held a while, or need minor upgrades often present great value.

• Consider longer-term holds: In less frothy markets, holding property for 5–10 years may yield steadier growth and less volatility.

• Negotiate more than price: Ask for closing credits, appliance upgrades, extended warranties, or flexible move‑in dates.

What I’m doing (and how I help)

At Merge Mortgage Group, we’re changing how we work with clients in this environment:

• We run multi‑scenario forecasts: what your payment looks like if prices move +/– 5 %, or if rates change slightly.

• We spotlight neighbourhoods with upside, areas in Alberta or secondary cities that are undervalued now.

• We help clients structure exit strategies: how to sell or refinance later, depending on conditions.

My goal: get you in a property you feel good about, not one you regret chasing.

So if you've been waiting for “the right time,” this might be it, not because things are heating up again, but because conditions are shifting. The door is opening slowly for strategic buyers.

Let’s talk about where you’re looking, what you need, and how we can find value now.

Contact us at mergemortgage.ca to get started.